Swanton, Vermont 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

184
FXUS61 KBTV 090515
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
115 AM EDT Wed Apr 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Periods of snow showers will continue today with potential for
intermittent low visibility during heavier shower elements.
After showers taper off overnight into Wednesday morning, a
warming trend begins with temperatures near seasonal average
tomorrow warming to well above seasonal average by Monday.
Precipitation chances return Thursday becoming more widespread
Friday and over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 113 AM EDT Wednesday...FROUDE numbers of 1 and higher
indicate snow showers should continue to scatter out overnight
tonight with much of the snow favoring mountain ridge crests.
Dew points have recovered swiftly in the teens and 20s now
following the burst of dry air from the cold frontal passage.
Forecast is on track with lows expected to be in the teens and
20s and winds gradually decreasing.

Previous discussion...Scattered to numerous showers will become
less widespread west to east this evening and overnight as Low
pressure tracks northeastward. Gusts of 20 to 35 mph will also
start to decrease with relative high pressure moving over the
region for Wednesday. Gusts will remain west-northwesterly
generally 15 to 25 mph with RH dropping into the 25-40% range;
lowest RH will be in the vicinity of Springfield, Vermont.
However, fire weather concerns will largely be mitigated by the
wet duff layer and less receptive fuels. Wednesday temperatures
will be warmer than today by a few degrees as skies partially
clear and the higher sun angle promotes increased solar
insolation. Winds begin to decrease an shift southerly Wednesday
night ahead of the next system that will approach out of the
Ohio River Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 PM EDT Tuesday...Clouds will be increasing Thursday
with a low pressure system tracking into the North Country out
of the Ohio River Valley. Model guidance has slowed on system
timing and decreased QPF as energy seemingly shifts from the
main triple point of the low to a developing wave over the Mid-
Atlantic States. As such, probabilistic guidance favors less
that 0.25" across central/northern Vermont and northern New
York. Opted to blend a little deterministic guidance in to
highlight terrain, but still have only 0.2" across highest
peaks. Also, since forcing is more limited and snow levels range
1500-3000ft, chances for snow will be more elevation dependent.
Daytime accumulations will largely be nil, but up to 3 inches
seems reasonable for higher terrain of the Adirondacks and
southern/south-central Greens. Lower elevations will remain rain
with only 10-25% chance to see some snow mix in.
Correspondingly, temperature guidance will be warming with
highs in the upper 40s to near 50 and lows around 30s degrees
to mid/upper 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 330 PM EDT Tuesday...After a dry beginning to Friday a
deepening low will track up the East Coast into the region Friday
night into Saturday. Models have come into better agreement on the
track of the system, however, the timing of the precipitation
remains uncertain. While both the GEFS and ECMWF ensembles show a
leading trough of moisture in the St. Lawrence Friday night, the
GEFS is a bit faster bringing the warm front north along with it by
Friday night, whereas the ECMWF is slower with the bulk of the
precipitation arriving by Saturday. The GEFS solution is a bit more
amplified due to a stronger bermuda high ridge which would lead to a
more progressive system with moisture advection centered over our
area. The EC ridge is more broad which slows the progression of the
system and centers the bulk of the precipitation more over Cape Cod.
Regardless of track, precipitation amounts are trending down with
NBM probabilities of at least 0.5 inches of across the area between
15-40%, higher probabilities exist in southern Vermont.
Probabilities of greater than 1 inch are near zero. As such any
flooding concerns remain low this weekend. Thermal profiles show
precipitation remaining mostly rain through the event with some
chances for snow mainly in the higher elevations. Deep waa from
southerly winds will help to reduce any surface cooling areawide and
help erode any cad east of the Greens. Ensembles generally take the
system out of our area by Sunday night with ridging attempting to
build in for Monday before the next system arrives on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 06Z Thursday...Snow showers continue at MPV and EFK, but
will come to an end overnight. Mainly MVFR conditions right now
with the SHSN. Also have MVFR ceilings at SLK. As the snow
showers end, visibilities will improve to P6SM areawide by 09Z,
and ceilings will lift to VFR areawide after 12Z. Gusts will
gradually diminish through the night, with winds becoming west
5-10 knots during the day today.

Outlook...

Thursday: VFR. Chance RA.
Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance RA,
Chance SN.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Likely SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Boyd
NEAR TERM...Boyd/Neiles/Storm
SHORT TERM...Danzig
LONG TERM...Danzig
AVIATION...Neiles